Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-20 0.377261 0.432556 0.492575 0.562488 0.641615 0.728315 0.830436
2025-07-27 0.308738 0.384595 0.473356 0.584592 0.719962 0.879034 1.079802
2025-08-03 0.257762 0.346641 0.458061 0.607299 0.801187 1.043701 1.369084
2025-08-10 0.203296 0.294398 0.416428 0.590582 0.831258 1.150429 1.603724
2025-08-17 0.158519 0.246595 0.372335 0.562986 0.842326 1.233680 1.819754
2025-08-24 0.129400 0.215426 0.345844 0.555107 0.878813 1.355843 2.105735
2025-08-31 0.106161 0.188655 0.321117 0.545409 0.910576 1.474795 2.402721
2025-09-07 0.091929 0.173630 0.312017 0.558276 0.978460 1.656297 2.817634
2025-09-14 0.074907 0.150421 0.285348 0.537606 0.988428 1.747131 3.099986
2025-09-21 0.063090 0.134276 0.268048 0.530006 1.018820 1.874365 3.457147
2025-09-28 0.053029 0.119439 0.250489 0.518834 1.040710 1.988892 3.805409
2025-10-05 0.047684 0.113087 0.248002 0.535616 1.116105 2.206536 4.361436
2025-10-12 0.041131 0.103095 0.237111 0.535287 1.161134 2.378677 4.864204
2025-10-19 0.036519 0.096508 0.232232 0.546681 1.231479 2.608151 5.505013
2025-10-26 0.032717 0.091023 0.228813 0.560734 1.309558 2.862768 6.226524
2025-11-02 0.027274 0.080185 0.211182 0.540080 1.310304 2.961351 6.646491
2025-11-09 0.022311 0.069372 0.191494 0.511128 1.288095 3.008989 6.966510
2025-11-16 0.019112 0.062617 0.180558 0.501359 1.308389 3.150270 7.503142
2025-11-23 0.016370 0.056485 0.170018 0.490696 1.324872 3.284935 8.040974
2025-11-30 0.014817 0.053588 0.167661 0.500969 1.394348 3.548662 8.899995
2025-12-07 0.012463 0.047488 0.155063 0.481320 1.384948 3.626500 9.338259
2025-12-14 0.010830 0.043342 0.147303 0.473764 1.405919 3.779558 9.971764
2025-12-21 0.009350 0.039309 0.139033 0.463202 1.417120 3.909637 10.563872